Hospitalization and cost trends during Iranian health system reforms over two decades: a time series analysis

Table 2 Characteristics of the fitted ARIMA models

Variable	ARIMA Models	MAE	Max APE	Max AE	Normalized BIC	Ljung-Box Q (18)
Variable	ARIMA Models	MAE	Max APE	Max AE	Normalized BIC	Statistics	DF	Sig.
The hospitalization rate per 1000 persons insured by non-rural health insurance	0,1,1	15.740	42.687	62.310	6.464	23.735	18	0.164
The hospitalization rate per 1000 persons insured by rural health insurance	1,1,1	8.554	47.748	31.246	5.160	20.136	18	0.325
The per capita inpatient costs incurred by non-rural health insurance	0,2,1	807146.634	20.247	5748170.553	28.657	12.720	17	0.755
The per capita inpatient costs incurred by rural health insurance	1,2,0	1047005.623	32.787	4692168.634	28.955	11.629	17	0.822
The annual cost raising for per capita hospitalization expenditures in the non-rural health insurance	0,0,0	7.995	217.157	23.584	4.834	11.565	18	0.869
The annual cost raising for per capita hospitalization expenditures in the rural health insurance	1,2,1	5.554	7773.043	17.184	4.550	20.015	18	0.332

ARIMA: autoregressive integrated moving average; BIC: normalized Bayesian information criterion; MAE: mean absolute error; Max AE: Maximum Absolute Error; Max APE: maximum absolute percentage error

ISSN: 1475-9276